![]() Dodgers under 102.5Ī whole lot more has to go right than wrong for the Dodgers to get to 103 victories. The AL might be bad enough for the Orioles to catch 65 wins. Brewers over 82.5Ĭhristian Yelich gets a bounce-back year, the top end of the rotation lives up to the hype, and the Brewers go over - but not by much. I bet this is the year I fade the Angels, only for them to lead the American League with 112 wins during the regular season. The Mets offer a nice payday to win the division - and they very well could if everything goes right - but I'll go ultimately go under. New York's ranked in the bottom five in runs saved each of the last four campaigns and still has holes despite landing Francisco Lindor to patrol the infield. Winning 91 games in the East is going to be tough, let alone for a club short on defense. What's not to like? FanGraphs projects all nine hitters in the starting lineup to bash 19 or more homers, Gerrit Cole is the chalk for Cy Young, and this team can't possibly deal with the injury luck it has in the past. Kansas City didn't land a true whale in free agency but probably did enough to get into the mid-70s. The public has a soft spot for the Royals, and I agree. This franchise has been trying to shove round pegs into square holes the last few seasons, and if they can't get a playoff bid, it's officially panic time in Philly. The Phillies are paper tigers, and it's time we face the music. The club has been pushed down the AL Central pecking order and will struggle to get to. The Indians have weathered the storm the last few years despite cutting ties with star players, but this is where they'll feel the effects. The Tigers will get a good look at their young prospects this season, which just about explains my stance on their win total. The Marlins were also the most-injured franchises in the majors last campaign by a mile. The rotation is sneakily one of the best in baseball, and this isn't a huge number to get to. The knee-jerk reaction would be to fade the Marlins following last year's run for a playoff bid, but Miami might be legit. Twins over 88.5Īre the Twins the best baseball club that nobody's talking about? They're going to jack a ton of homers and just added MLB's best defensive shortstop. Now we're expecting them to win 76 games, much less in the West with the Dodgers and Padres? No thanks. The Giants were supposed to have a historically-bad roster last season before finishing 29-31 and third in the division over the shortened campaign. I light a candle at church every Sunday for what the Rangers' pitching staff is going to endure this year. I don't see 80 wins in the card for a team whose title window is seemingly closed. Most of the core from that 2016 title is in danger of fracturing even more if Chicago fails to get a stronghold on a playoff spot. Speaking of key pieces, the Cubs will likely need to have a scorching-hot start to keep theirs. A couple of key pieces could go before the deadline, so I'm banking on another underwhelming campaign for the 2018 champs. While I like the offense's forecast, the pitching is going to get battered in the AL East. The Red Sox are hitting the cover off the ball this spring. This might be the season everything clicks. The market was really high on Cincinnati the last two campaigns, to no avail. The Reds have deep pitching and can't be much worse offensively than they were a year ago. Juan Soto's the favorite for NL MVP, Max Scherzer's in the mix for Cy Young, and Josh Bell and Kyle Schwarber are huge additions. Washington only won 26 games last season, but the lineup ranked third and 10th in the majors in batting average and runs per game, respectively. I like the Nationals - despite the club playing in a loaded NL East. Now the franchise has Nolan Arenado? Ship it. 554% winning percentage over the last seven campaigns, which comes out to over 89 wins a year. I have my doubts about the Cardinals as legitimate contenders, but they're going to mow through a weak NL Central. Losing Charlie Morton and Blake Snell will hurt, Tyler Glasnow's a two-pitch pitcher whose fastball got crushed last season, and I'm not entirely sold on the Randy Arozarena lovefest. Rays under 86.5īaseball is more fun when the small-market Rays are dominating, but I'm not in love with their 2021 roster. The total's low for a reason - the Rockies will struggle to win games - but it dropped off too far for me. There's continuity in the pitching staff, Trevor Story and Charlie Blackmon are still present, and Colorado cut ties with some of the dead weight from last year's roster. Look, I'm not proud to type that out, but I have to. This is another disrespectful number for a team that's quietly the cream of the crop in the division. No team has made the market look more foolish than Oakland, which has ranked top-eight in run differential in each of the last three seasons.
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